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While it may be early to get too excited about the investment opportunity in China property high-yield bonds, a recent restructuring proposal made by a Chinese property high-yield company highlights the potential for high recoveries. We evaluate the return expectations we have for the market over a two-year cycle rather than one, as the visibility on restructurings and recovery is likely to be much higher in 24 months than in 12. But with the elevated default risks in the sector as Ken just explained, diversification is the way to invest. And number two: If you are well diversified, the asymmetry of returns is heavily skewed to a positive return scenario (the downside is minimal even in a disaster scenario). Number one: diversification is critical to help mitigate downside scenarios. This leaves us with two important conclusions for investors. To get to a 24% return expectation, you have to believe that a quarter of Chinese property high-yield bonds default this year. To get -2% you have to believe that almost two-thirds of Chinese property high-yield will default during 2022 from here, and expect a 10 cent recovery for every dollar invested. Utilizing our preferred benchmark as a starting point, which benefits from a relatively high degree of regional diversification and based on a range of potential default rate and recovery scenarios, we calculate potential cumulative return expectations over two years of between -2% and 24% (as of January 31st). Salman Niaz: We approach the asset class recognizing structural value and attractive total return potential, but with heightened uncertainty in the near-term, emanating from the Chinese high-yield property sector which continues to remain under significant pressure. How are you approaching investment opportunities in Asia’s high-yield sector more broadly? ![]() Salman, let’s get your thoughts on the investment opportunities given your role as head of Asia Credit for Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Emerging Market team. How much more pain could China’s p roperty market see - and could we turn a corner? So it’s a neutral view stay up in quality and be diversified.Ģ022 hasn’t got off to an encouraging start. You don’t want to be overly concentrated on specific issuers as idiosyncratic risks remain high. Our view is to stay at the very high end and be diversified and wait for news to come before making a more definitive directional stance. We do think you can generate decent returns from China property high-yield but the risk around that is very high. It’s hard to speak in terms of opportunities - it continues to be a difficult environment. Saying that, we do expect the stronger companies to survive and these bigger, stronger companies are ultimately going to be the main beneficiaries of policy easing as lenders feel more comfortable extending credit to stronger companies. Last year was over 28%, so it’s still at very elevated levels of defaults. In 2022, we have a base-case estimate for a China property high-yield default rate of 19%. Our expectation going forward is that you would get more easing but at the same time you get more defaults. It feels that the market is still under a lot of stress, as a lot of easing measures from China policymakers have been piecemeal and haven’t led to a big impact on the physical market, and companies are still having trouble making payments. Kenneth Ho: Credit conditions remain very tight. Kenneth, as Goldman Sachs Research’s Asia credit strategist, how are you thinking about the China property high-yield market today? Property developers’ debt-repayment problems have been among the biggest issues roiling Asia’s credit markets over the past year. We spoke with Kenneth Ho from Goldman Sachs Research and Salman Niaz of Goldman Sachs Asset Management for their views on Chinese property credit and the Asia high-yield sector more broadly to understand what has changed. Several months later, defaults on Chinese property bonds continue to remain elevated. The article below is from our BRIEFINGS newsletter of 03 March 2022Īre there signs of healing in China’s property sector? When the indebted property giant China Evergrande Group started defaulting on its payments last fall, fear spread that a potential bankruptcy would trigger a broader crisis in China’s debt markets - and global markets more broadly. ![]() Both the dress and apron have delicate trim, and we've even included the coordinated blue hair bow for your golden locks. 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Results: Arrest Records, Mugshot, Charges, Bookings, Offense Dates, Offense Description, Related Incidents, Bail Amount, Warrants, Arrest Location, Incarceration Date, Scheduled Release, Jail Housing Location, Court. The charts below break down the men, women, races, ethnicities and the types of crimes that peopleĪre arrested and incarcerated for in both Elmore County and state prisons throughout the country.Search for Inmates on the Jail Roster in Dale County AL. Current as of: 5:02 PM List will normally be updated in approximately 4.5 hours from that time. The weekly turnover rate of inmates is approximately 55%, meaning that every week more than half of these inmates are released and then replaced with new offenders being booked into jail. Inmates In The Wise County Jail - Sorted by Days Incarcerated. 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X – Haunted forest – thanks to Starrocks923ħ255 – 6313 – 8546 – Candy, farms, shrooms, a fine mix – thanks to siNkĮarthlol – a small island with a big rock – thanks to DesticlerĢ376 – 4675 -3607 – large crystal/space island infested with eagles – thanks to Pardonreedĥ089 – 2654 – 6693 – Mountains with climbers – thanks to Dziarski Hank Ninja – “An AMAZING world.” – thanks to AlexZĨ393 – 7266 – 7676 – Massive amount of chests in mixed biomes – thanks to 8wallĥ179 – 1465 – 6734 – Very versatile – thanks to 8wallģ541 – 5703 – 7904 – A really small island – thanks to Moose KingĮSTELLE – Sakura blossom forest – thanks to StiM Lava hot – A tiny itty bitty rock island – thanks to Sillyheadbasherįire and Ice – A mountain with big island surrounding it – thanks to Sillyheadbasherģ967 – 1639 – 9890 – “If anyone is having difficulty finding the plane/helicopter, head for the ice plains.” – thanks to RF-darkangel New Divide – “It is like a huge island with snow in the middle of the main section surrounded by grasslands/forest with some rocky areas.” – thanks to TechiastronamoĠ000 – 0000 – 0003 – Large crystal biome, with a candyland nearby – thanks to LomanC83 Skyrim – Candyland (cross the ocean) – thanks to GamErĭERPY HOOVES – Snow & desert with pyramids & sphinx – thanks to Sillyheadbasher STARROCKS – Farm – thanks to Starrocks923Ġ1134 – Really cool seed with crystal biome & more – thanks to Atoz ME – A mix of many biomes – thanks to Starrocks923 ![]() List the coordinates and Sector you put in!Ġ0000000000 – Skateboard (someone have issues with this one)- thanks to Я не Wexelĥ555 – 5555 – 5555 – Space/crystal biome – thanks to Я не WexelĢ006 – 8942 – 7474 – Candy biome ! – thanks to Leo See if they carry over, and list what you get! Hey everyone, I'm not sure if these carry over, but seem to be beta galactic coordinates I found on the net. That being said: It’s disappointment in relation to the first game, which was stellar. No tactics allowed, and no dedicated naval/ship-to-ship combat. ![]() What, you’d rather send your own army? Crossing an ocean can take upwards of eight turns, and-even weirder-any naval battles are fought as if the two land armies were facing off against each other, and can only be auto-resolved. Thus it often feels like you’re in a vacuum, struggling to raise Tablets/Scrolls/whatever faster than an enemy you can’t even see, and then trusting the AI to throw a wrench into the enemy’s plans for you. But you don’t even control the mercenary army you bought, nor the makeup of said army aside from a Weak/Average/Strong dynamic based on how much you paid. ![]() Each time a Ritual is started by an enemy faction you can pay to send an “Intervention” army to opposing cities-a means of getting around your innate isolation. That’s a problem when those same High Elves end up being your closest rivals, in large part because their empire’s grown unchecked on the other side of the world. Here, you could go the entire Lizardmen campaign without ever encountering the High Elves at all, even though you’re directly embroiled in this global conflict with them. In the first game, it often felt like Dwarves could finish out a game and barely interact with the Empire/Humans-but that’s because your win conditions had next-to-nothing to do with them! There’s also an odd dynamic that occurs by featuring four different continents, two of which are completely isolated by oceans. It wasn’t like I could abstain from conquest. But I needed those cities to generate Tablets as fast as my rivals. Every turn, there were a dozen or more cities demanding attention, asking me to weigh the benefits of another barracks here, another quarry there, and so on. Once you’re past even 20 or 30 settlements, that’s a lot of micromanagement. Some are in an “unsuitable” climate, which carries various negative effects, but that’s it. Every city you control contributes to your total, and by the end of my Lizardmen campaign I owned something like 65 settlements, gained through some combination of military conquest and unifying other Lizardmen factions under my own banner-a necessity, because other Lizardmen factions won’t contribute to your own Ancient Tablet goals, even though you’re all sort of “on the same side.” No city is off-limits, either. In Total Warhammer II, generating Tablets/Scrolls/Fragments/Warpstone is mostly a factor of how many cities you own. This had dual effects: It grounded the conflict, made each city you captured feel important, and it also artificially limited how many cities the player had to manage. Vampires only had designs on Empire territory, for example. You didn’t just rampage across the map, declaring war on whoever you wanted. I praised Total Warhammer for restricting factions to certain parts of the world. The Great Vortex MacGuffin-rush also changes how the campaign progresses. The same goes for Elves this time around-that’s well-trod territory.Īs far as win conditions, though, sure, they all have different reasons for coveting the Vortex, but…well, not that different. Dwarves, Humans, Orcs, Vampires-the latter faction was the most interesting, but none are exactly unexplored territory. The first Total Warhammer was a huge departure for Total War, but not much of a departure for video games in general. And the ratlike Skaven? They plan to tear open the void itself.īefore I get into what I dislike, I’d like to praise the factions themselves. The High Elves fear their Dark Elf counterparts will corrupt the Vortex and bring Chaos back to the world-a plan the Dark Elves have indeed put into motion. They seek to protect the Vortex from warmblood interference. ![]() The Lizardmen, ancient stewards of the world, are afraid of lesser races derailing the “Great Plan” foreseen by their ancestors. All four factions want control of the Great Vortex, whether to save the world or to corrupt it. Where the previous game focused on ancient enmities-between Dwarves and Greenskins, Empire and Vampires, and so on- Warhammer II is much more focused, more immediate in its concerns. This supernatural cyclone is also the heart of Total Warhammer II. And at the heart of Ulthuan? The Great Vortex, a magical tornado that drains magical energy from the world. 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